NATURAL HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN UPDATE 2023 NATURAL HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN BACKGROUND • Purpose: Prepare for natural disasters before the occur, thus reducing loss of live, property damage, and disruption of commerce • Plan is a data driven document based on past historical hazard events and the potential for future events based on historical data • Plan assesses risks from Natural Hazards • Incentive: The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requires Natural HMPs as a condition for eligibility to receive certain mitigation grant program funds and grants. • Virginia Department of Emergency Management encourages regional Natural Hazard Mitigation Plans to help jurisdictions address issues regionally • VDEM Maintains a Statewide Hazard Mitigation Plan NATURAL HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN DOCUMENT • Required Sections: 1. Planning Process – the process through which the plan was developed, including public input 2. Community Profile – general information about communities in the planning district 3. Hazard Identification and Analysis – general information about potential hazards in the planning district, the historic record of hazard events, and the probability of future events 4. Vulnerability Assessment – analysis of the human impact hazards could cause, with estimated potential losses for various hazard scenarios 5. Capabilities Assessment – a survey of current local capacity to mitigate natural hazards 6. Mitigation Strategy – goals, objectives, and action items selected to mitigate hazards identified in the region TIMELINE The following timeline depicts the major points along the process of the plan update: LEPC Meetings Public Submit Present HIRA Plan and consultation Comment to Working period on to Annual Meeting with local staff on Group Draft Plan FEMA and Update mitigation action Plan Kick-Off Public Survey M i 2021 2022 MayHR June 16N October December March-May June Aug Dec Submit Research and Plan to Technical Analysis Finalize HIRA VDEM for HIRA HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT (HIRA) • Describes all natural hazards that affect the Planning District and provide an analysis on location, extent, severity, and probability of occurrence • General descriptions of events • Data on events such as frequency, duration, severity and financial impact • Hazards are presented in order of the relative risk they pose to the region • Hazards are rated based on a risk matrix developed by Kaiser Permanente HIRA Notable Hurricanes in the Planning District VAISLA Lightning Flash Density/Mile 2015-2019 Hurricane Specific Area Damage Year Cat. phenomena poses the most significant risk to area residents. Wind Zeta All Heavy rain, localized flooding Oct. 20, 2020 3 Matthew All $30+ million in private + public structure De. 18, 2018 5 crop damage. These events have resulted in 85 injuries and 2 deaths damage, 2 deaths, evacuations, flooding/power outages since 1995. Significant past wind events include the 2012 Derecho, Florence All TJPDC localities $200 million in damage, heavy Oct. 15, 2018 4 rain/flooding/high winds/spawned tornadoes, 3 deaths Joaquin All Rain, localized flooding Oct 2, 2015 2 because they develop quickly. Hurricane Arthur Fluvanna, Louisa, Albemarle Power outages, rain, flooding July 4, 2014 2 related winds tend to have a greater impact in the eastern part of Sandy Nelson, Greene Power outages, rain, flooding Oct 29, 2012 3 Virginia. Few hurricanes have made a direct hit on the region. Most Cindy Fluvanna and Louisa Counties 3 deaths in U.S. July 7, 2005 1 are downgraded to tropical storms before they reach the planning Ivan Fluvanna and Louisa Counties Estimated $18 billion in U.S. damages Sept. 18, 2004 5 and 25 deaths district. Note: Tornados are addressed on a Isabel All Preliminary estimate of over $4 billion Sept 18, 2003 5 in damages/costs; at least 40 deaths Floyd All Flooding rains and high winds. 4 deaths; over Sep-99 4 280,000 customers without electricity, 5,000 homes damaged. Historic Hurricane Tracks 1980-2008 Fran Northwest Greene Co. was hardest hit. $5.8 billion damage; 37 deaths, loss of electricity (state-wide) August- Septemb 3 er 1996 Agnes Scottsville (34 feet), More than 210,000 people were forced to June 19-24, 1 Howardsville and Columbia flee for their lives and 122 were killed. 1972 Camille Massie Mill, Davis Creek, 114 deaths in Nelson Co alone. August 1969 5 Scottsville, Howardsville, Flooding & landslides. $1.42 billion Schuyler, Columbia, Piney (unadjusted). Hazel River All Flooding, barns leveled, roofs pulled off. Oct 14-15, 4 Number of Wind Events by Year 2015-2021 1954 High/Strong Wind Events and Thunderstorms with Wind 2010-2020 Hurricane/Tropical Storms 2010-2020 Hurricane and Tropical Storm Record 2010-2020 Locality # Deaths Injuries Property Loss Crop Damage Albemarle/Cville (reported with Nelson) 2 0 0 $ $ 5,000.00 - Fluvanna (reported with Louisa) 1 0 0 $ $ 36,000.00 - Greene 1 0 0 $ $ 1,000.00 - Louisa (reported with Fluvanna) 1 0 0 $ - $ - Nelson (reported with Albemarle) 2 0 $ $ 1,000.00 - Source: National Climate Data Center HIRA:FLOODINGAND DAM FAILURE Dam Points Across Region 100 Year Floodplain (1% Chance of Flood) and property statewide. Flooding is associated with heavy or downstream from a weather event. Riverine flooding occurs along theregions larger river systems like the James or Rivanna Rivers. In the causes floodwaters to travel downstream. Examples of this kind of flooding can be found in the towns of Scottsville and Columbia. All of high. These categories factor in the dam size and the number of people in the floodway. It does not focus on the quality of the Dam Risk Level by County National Annual Flood Loss (mean claim value of flood insurance) Floods 2010-2021 Summary of Floods, Flood Record 2010-2021 Locality # Death Injuries Property Loss Crop Damage Albemarle 136 1 0 $50,000.00 $ Charlottesville 5 0 0 $ $ Fluvanna 6 0 0 $ $ Greene 79 0 0 $4,777,000.00 $312,000.00 HIRA Assessment Louisa 9 0 0 $ $ Nelson 65 $30,000.00 $ HUMA PROPERT BUSINES 0 0 PROBABI RISK Region 300 1 0 $4,857,000.00 $312,000.00 EVENT L ITY N Y S Source: National Climate Data Center (NOAA) IMPAC IMPACT IMPACT T Likelihoo Possibility of Physical losses Interruption Relative d thiswill death or injury and damages ofservices threat* occur SCORE 0-3 NA-High 0-3 NA-High 0-3 NA- 0-3 NA-High 0 - 100% High Flooding 3 1 2 2 65% Dam Failure 1 2 2 2 22% HIRA:WINTER WEATHER in the region. Storms like nor’easter can causes significant snow Winter Weather Events by Type 2000-2020 accumulations, especially in areas at higher elevations. Winter Locality Blizzard Cold/Win Freezin Heav Ice Winte Winter Frost/ d Chill g Fog y Stor r Weathe Freez Snow m Stor r e m Albemarle 2 1 1 5 6 37 83 33 Fluvanna 1 3 48 40 3 Greene 2 4 7 7 39 79 34 Louisa 1 3 55 46 3 Nelson 2 2 5 7 34 65 33 Region 6 7 1 19 26 213 313 106 Winter Storm Events 2010-2020 Frequency of Snowfall Events Total Number of Winter Events by Year Locality # Death Injuries Property Damage Winter Events in TJPDC Albemarle 10 0 0 $5,000.00 Charlottesville 17 0 $ - Region by Year (2010- Fluvanna 15 0 0 $110,000.00 Greene 32 0 0 $- 2021) Louisa Nelson 21 25 0 0 0 0 $160,000.00 $5,000.00 Region 120 0 0 $280,000.00 2020 2018 2016 Year 2014 HIRA Assessment HUMA PROPERT BUSINES 2012 PROBABI N Y S RISK EVENT L ITY 2010 IMPAC IMPACT IMPACT T 0 20 40 60 80 Likelihoo d thiswill Possibility of death or injury Physical losses and damages Interruption ofservices Relative threat* occur SCORE 0-3 NA-High 0-3 NA-High 0-3 NA- 0-3 NA-High 0 - 100% Number of Winter Events High Winter Weather 3 1 1 2 56% HIRA: COMMUNICABLE DISEASE/PANDEMIC The most common infectious diseases impacting the region prior to Top Communicable Diseases in TJPDC TJPDC Health Opportunity Index (Excluding Chronic Hepatitis) Coronavirus were Campylobacteriosis and Salmonella. Both live in the intensities of birds and are spread to humans through consumption of contaminated foods, contact with infected animals, or by drinking contaminated water. Lyme disease is commonly spread through vectors such as ticks. The Covid-19 pandemic is the leading infectious disease in each locality, surpassing historical data from 2018 on the top reported cases of other contagious diseases. Rather than case rates ranging from 20- 60 per 100,000 people, Coronavirus cases have reached 9,000-14,000 cases per 100,000 people in the Thomas Jefferson Planning District COVID-19 Case Information from 2019-January Region. 2022 County Top Condition Locality Total Cases Cases Hospitalizations Deaths Albemarle Campylobacteriosis was the most per frequently reported disease with 25 100,000 Top Communicable Diseases in Virginia cases. This equates to a rate of Albemarle 10,219 9,400 376 118 (Excluding Chronic Hepatitis) 23.2 cases per 100,000 population. Charlottesville 6,518 13,546 162 64 Fluvanna Campylobacteriosis was the most frequently reported disease with 11 Fluvanna 3,415 12.751 133 32 cases. This equates to a rate of 41.6 cases per 100,000 population Greene 2,758 13,994 162 47 Louisa Salmonellosis was the most frequently reported disease with 9 Louisa 4,410 11,991 175 54 cases. This equates to a rate of 25.1 cases per 100,000 population. Nelson 1,836 12,375 64 24 Greene Campylobacteriosis was the most frequently reported disease with 10 cases. This equates to a rate of 51.0 cases per 100,000 population. HIRA Assessment Nelson Lyme disease was the most HUMA PROPERT BUSINES PROBABI RISK frequently reported disease with 8 L ITY N Y S EVENT cases. This equates to a rate of IMPAC IMPACT IMPACT 53.5 cases per 100,000 population. T Likelihoo Possibility of Physical losses Interruption Relative Charlottesville (city) Campylobacteriosis was the most d thiswill death or injury and damages ofservices threat* frequently reported disease with 15 occur cases. This equates to a rate of SCORE 0-3 NA-High 0-3 NA-High 0-3 NA- 0-3 NA-High 0 - 100% High 31.2 cases per 100,000 population. Communicable 2 2 1 2 30% Disease/Pandemi c HIRA: WILDFIRE Wildfire Location and Acreage Burned Wildfire Risk Index Wildfires are a relatively common occurrence in the rural portions of the PDC. Since 2017 there have been 466 fires that have burned a total of 3,276 acres of land. Most wildfires are small and are quickly brought under control by local firefighters and state Department of Forestry. Frequent causes of blazes are discarded cigarette butts and out-of-control brush pile burning. There have been a number of large notable fires but these have been mostly constrained to Federal Lands. For example, the Rocky Mountain Fire burned portions of Shenandoah National Park in Greene County. People and property are at increased fire risk as more people move into rural areas and extend the urban wildland fringe. Wildfire Acerage and Number of Events Wildfire Events 2017-2021 Causes of Wildfires 2017-2021 Locality # Of Fires Acres Albemarle 136 1215.9 Fluvanna 98 319.1 Greene 29 31.1 Louisa 130 1298.4 Nelson 63 412.1 HIRA Assessment TJPDC 466 3276.6 PROBABILIT Y HUMAN PROPERTY BUSINESS RISK EVENT IMPACT IMPACT IMPACT Likelihood Possibility of Physical losses and Interruption of Relative thiswill occur death or injury damages services threat* SCORE 0-3 NA-High 0-3 NA-High 0-3 NA-High 0-3 NA-High 0 - 100% Wildfire 2 1 1 2 22% HazardMitigationPlan US Drought Monitor (USGS) Snapshot (Dec 20, 2021) USGS Landslide Overview Map which are 10° above or below a baseline normal temperature. Both limited precipitation. Factors that influence drought severity include resources. Drought forecasts are produced by the U.S Drought of landslide. Deforestation and the removal of vegetation greatly Landslides in Region from 1969-2020 Region Historic Drought based on Percent Area Virginia Monthly High, Low and Average Temperatures HIRA Assessment PROBABILI HUMA PROPERT BUSINES RISK EVENT T Y N Y S IMPAC IMPACT IMPACT T Likelihood Possibility of Physical losses Interruption Relative thiswill death or injury and damages ofservices threat* occur SCORE 0-3 NA-High 0-3 NA-High 0-3 NA- 0-3 NA-High 0 - 100% High Drought/Extrem 2 1 1 2 22% e Heat Landslide 1 1 1 1 11% HIRA:TORNADO AND EARTHQUAKE Regional Tornado Tracks 2011 Mineral Earthquake Epicenters and Magnitudes The Region averages about 1 tornado a year. Most tornados experienced in the region are EF0 or EF1 events. However, the exception was a major tornado produced by Tropical Storm Ivy (EF2) which touched down in Fluvanna County. July is the most active month for tornados as it has the most number of thunderstorms. quakes that do occur being a magnitude 2.5 or less. These quakes Virginia Earthquake Epicenter Density urc VDEM, 20 Ha d Miti t n Tornados 1950-2020 Historic Earthquakes in the TJPDC Tornado Record 1920-2020 Class Property Damage Date EF2 $200,000 4/19/2019 EF0 $325,000 2/24/2016 EF1 Historic homes damaged in Louisa County 10/9/2011 F1 $500,000 8/30/2005 F2 $3,000,000 9/17/2004 F1 $500,000 5/13/2000 F1 $250,000 5/5/1989 F3 $250,000 7/25/1985 F1 $250,000 10/13/1983 F2 $250,000 8/9/1962 HIRA Assessment 11 people died and 4 were injured HUMA PROPERT BUSINES PROBABILITY RISK N/A in Ivy/Mechum’s River 1959 N Y S EVENT Leveled trees, tore off roofs, IMPAC IMPACT IMPACT T N/A smashed buildings in Ivy 1922 Likelihood this Possibility of Physical losses Interuption of Relative will occur death or injury and damages services threat* SCORE 0-3 NA-High 0-3 NA-High 0-3 NA- 0-3 NA-High 0 - 100% High Tornado 2 1 1 2 22% Earthquake 1 1 2 2 19% HAZARD VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT DATA SOURCES • National Climactic Data Center • VA Department of Forestry • VA Department of Health • VA Department of Emergency Management • VA Department of Conservation and Recreation • VA Department of Environmental Quality • VA Department of Energy • VA Department of Energy • UVA • Center for Disease Control • American Society of Civil Engineers • National Weather Service • United States Geological Survey • NASA • Locality Staff • Local news • Published Research Papers HAZARD VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT • Provides an overview and analysis of vulnerability in the Thomas Jefferson Planning District using factors including the HIRA, projected population growth and settlement patterns and the location of existing people and infrastructure • Utilize Planning tools including FEMA’s HAZUS models for Hurricanes, earthquakes and flood and the Wildfire Risk Assessment for wildfires. • Presents information on expected losses $$ • Understand risk based on location MODELED HURRIC ANE LOSSES • Expected Economic Losses from Historic Hurricane Event Scenario: Fran (1996) • Equivalent of an Approximate 200-Year Event MODELED FLOOD LOSSES – 100 YEAR EVENT (SCOTTSVILLE) WILDFIRE MITIGATION ACTIONS NEXT STEPS • Public Comment • Submit to VDEM and FEMA • Work towards formal adoption by all localities